Brighton enterprise wins Gamechanger Award

A small enterprise owner based in Rottingdean Brighton has been voted the Entrepreneur of the Year at the Sussex Chamber of Commerce annual awards event held at the Crown Plaza Hotel. The awards recognise businesses across Sussex for being best in class, with adventurer and TV presenter Ben Fogle attending this year.

Award Judges included Dee Mathieson MD and Tim Rose Vice President of Elekta, international leaders in medical innovations. Their detailed reviews explored online evidence and a personal interview assessment. They visited Clive Bonny at Strategic Management Partners in Rottingdean.

The judges commented “Clive covered a wide breadth and depth of skills and expertise and a passion for ideas. Highly adaptable, he continually develops what he needs in order to serve his clients when he sees an opportunity to fill a gap. He can quantify success through objective data provided to us at the interview and multiple testimonials from satisfied clients. Clive has an impressive track record of inspiring and giving confidence to those setting up new businesses and his energy and generosity to share his wealth of expertise was what put him ahead of the others in this category”

Clive, who has been providing business support services since 1990, says “this recognition deserves to go to my collaboration partners Mark Riminton, Lorraine Davies and Judith Badger at the University of Brighton, and to Matthew Pullinger and Richard Hall at the University of Portsmouth. They have referred startups and high growth innovators to me for many years, helping to protect and create hundreds of new jobs with new products and services. My advice to others is to create partnerships with business support organisations such as Universities and Chambers of Commerce. These collaborations leverage knowledge and skill sharing across the whole community, especially for low carbon innovations with high environmental and social value.”

For more information

https://www.sussexchamberofcommerce.co.uk/

https://www.clean-growth.uk/

www.consult-smp.com   

Clive Bonny 07973 799153  

George Square Financial Management - Interest Rate Update

In response to The Bank of England interest rate increase I thought an update on the current financial situation may be useful.

The big 5.0: UK Interest rates jump as inflation bites.

Last week The Bank of England surprised financial markets by raising interest rates to 5%, a jump of 0.5% which is sharper than most had expected.

The decision comes in response to a surprise inflation number earlier in the week that showed the rising cost of living staying at 8.7% in June, rather than falling to 8.4% as had been expected. Worryingly both wages and goods were rising together.

Why has the Bank of England moved so aggressively?

Central Banks, including our own Bank of England, raised interest rates to suppress demand in the economy and bring down inflation. Their primary goal is to keep prices stable because when they are not it can create the very difficult situation of falling economic growth and rising prices. Such a situation when it becomes entrenched is the most significant kind of economic problem - creating hardship that can last for years.

So far, the Bank of England’s efforts to curb our inflation have proved less effective than others around the world. It is trusting that shock and awe might have more affect and also re-gain the confidence of financial markets who must believe they have what it takes to get the job done.

Why is the situation worse in the UK than in other countries?

In most major economies including the largest, the United States, inflation is falling fast. This enabled their Central Bank to pause interest rate rises in June and hint that there may only be one or two more before the job is done.

Investors are increasingly confident that a full-blown recession there can be avoided and those companies most sensitive to inflation increases are on the rise again. Here in the UK though times are much tougher. This means that the market is betting our interest rates will carry on rising even as others come down, which is shown in the graph below.

                                                                                                Source: Bloomberg, 20/04/2020 to 14/06/2023

So why is it so much worse for us? This is a difficult question because it strays into political views for many people. Part of the answer is surely that the Bank of England did not act fast enough initially, and action taken too late is simply less effective than action taken early.

However, there are more controversial reasons. Firstly, we were particularly vulnerable to higher natural gas prices in the first phase of the war in the Ukraine as a result of the energy importing, we undertake. In the United States for example the idea of energy independence has been agreed by all parties for decades and this insulated them. However, secondly most independent analysts agree that it is easier for both the Eurozone and the United States to cope with inflation in things like food prices because they are part of big single markets. Labour costs can diffuse across the region and goods can be moved free of tariffs to where they are needed. This forces down prices. Post Brexit we do not have this luxury in the United Kingdom, and this has made us vulnerable. We have also lost access to the European workers who helped control wage inflation in the United Kingdom.

When will inflation come down?

There are early signs that inflation is now falling with supermarkets for example reporting food price rises easing for the first time in more than a year. Some of our inflation is imported and linked to the price of raw materials and energy and this is falling. However, there is a very long way to go. It now seems likely that a recession is the price that must be paid to remove this inflationary pressure from the system. Whilst we can expect it to ease as the year goes on, it may be a number of years until it is fully resolved.

Does this mean a recession?

It is our view that the UK will enter a recession as a result of high interest rates and high inflation. However, we should not anticipate it to be a recession on a par with that seen during the Covid pandemic or after the Global Financial Crisis. Once the recession bites and domestic inflation pressure recedes, the Bank of England will be keen to rapidly reduce the cost of money and boost our flagging economy.

What can the Government do?

The hard truth here is not very much. There will be calls for action to help those with mortgages that are seeing rapidly rising interest payments. However, if the government were to cap those interest rate rises the Bank of England would likely not see the impact on inflation that it is seeking. It is likely instead that it will simply prevent any repossessions occurring for those who fall foul of higher interest rates. However, expect this decision to be taken all too slowly for those consumed by the worry of this situation. Other than that, the stark reality is that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak does not have any bright ideas and we should not deceive ourselves that there is an obvious alternative plan from Labour. The only sure-fire way to get down inflation is to raise interest rates, take the pain from those rises and wait. The best Governments can do is to try to insulate the most vulnerable from that pain without working against the Central Bank – a tough ask.

What does this mean for my portfolio?

The problems in the UK mean less than you might think for your portfolio. We invest using a globally diversified approach. This means that even when there is trouble in our home market, we can find opportunities overseas. It is also mistaken to assume that problems in our economy necessarily translate directly to our Stock Market which has very large exposure overseas itself. One significant area is whether this crisis forces the price of government bonds (gilts) down further. We think that gilts are already pricing in some pretty bad news and that ultimately, they will offer an opportunity for investors.

Now bank accounts offer a good interest rate should I just own cash?

There are two key reasons why ditching your portfolio in favour of cash may be a poor decision at the current time, even though bank interest rates now look at first glance more attractive.

• 1.       The return on cash has not really gone up. Every investment we make must keep pace with inflation if it is to hold its value for us in future. A cash rate of 5% when inflation is at close to 9% is effectively losing 4% of its buying power each year. Your money is falling in terms of the true value it gives you in your life, even if you don’t see the number going down. By contrast, diversified investments in shares, bond and other assets have been shown over the long-term to be the only repeatable way to beat inflation and grow your buying power. The price investors pay for this is some volatility. The inflation will not be matched each and every year but is over the long-term.
• 2.       The best returns are often made during and just after recessions. One of the challenges of trying to time when to invest in the Stock Market is that most often the best returns are actually made during recessions, and sometimes just after them. As soon as financial markets understand how bad a recession will be they ‘put it in the price’. Soon after this, recoveries can come fast, even though the real economy is still in trouble. Attempting to keep your money in cash and wait for a recovery often means you are missing this most beneficial time to be invested. Worse than that, those assets in cash will have fallen in terms of their buying power and then missed out on the returns that can re-capture it.

We believe the soundest response, notwithstanding the individual circumstances, is to stay invested through difficult times and trust that over the long-term, problems do get solved. Interest rate rises are painful, but they are healing for the global economy. Ultimately, they drive inflation out of the system and allow the economy to re-build.

The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down and you may get back less than invested. Changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of your investment. This material may include charts displaying financial instruments' past performance as well as estimates and forecasts. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Capital at risk.

All Rights Reserved The content of this material is a marketing communication, and not independent investment research. As such, the legal and regulatory requirements in relation to independent investment research do not apply to this material and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. The material is for general information purposes only (whether or not it states any opinions). It does not consider your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) legal, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by George Square FM that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Although the information set out in this marketing communication is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, George Square FM makes no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. George Square FM shall not be responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.

George Square FM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

Join  Shoreham Port at their Sustainability Week 5th - 8th July

Join our free talks & tours to discover how ports, charities & businesses are pursuing a greener future. Sustainability Week 2023 at Shoreham Port is made possible through sponsorship from HSBC UK & H2 Green.

You can view the whole collection of Sustainability Week events via eventbrite here, or click on the event titles below to view specific events. All events are free to attend. We welcome you to attend any range of events that spark your interest!

Thursday 6th July

10:00-11:00 Riding Waves for Wellness: Surf Therapy in Brighton & Sussex with The Wave Project

10:00-11:00 Powering the Future: Shoreham Port Green Energy Hub Update with H2 Green

11:00-12:00 Behind-the-Scenes Walking Tour of Shoreham Port with the Shoreham Port team

11:30-12:30 Sussex Kelp Recovery: Fronds of Hope for Rewilding Sussex Seas with the Sussex Kelp Recovery Project

11:30-12:30 Navigating Port Decarbonisation with Renewables with ABL Group

13:30-14:30 Sustainable Finance: Accounting for a Greener Tomorrow with HSBC

13:30-14:30 Discover our Anchor Points: a Walking Tour with the Shoreham Port team

13:30-14:30 Connecting the Dots: Exploring Sussex's Dolphin Community with Sussex Dolphin Project

14:00-15:00 Behind-the-Scenes Walking Tour of Shoreham Port with the Shoreham Port team

Friday 7th July

10:00-11:00 Flowing Futures: Protecting Sussex’s Rivers with Sussex Bay

11:00-12:00 Behind-the-Scenes Walking Tour of Shoreham Port with the Shoreham Port team

11:30-12:30 Changing Rooms: Can fashion fit into a sustainable world? with Hannah Statham

11:30-12:30 Scaling up Coastal Restoration in the Solent & Sussex Bay with UK Seascape Restoration Research Network

Saturday 8th July

10:00-12:30 Sustainability Week 2023 Big Beach Clean - Families welcome! with the Shoreham Port team, Sussex Dolphin Project & Big Blue Ocean Cleanup

More information

We ask that attendees ensure to allow plenty of time to get to where you need to be, for most events we would advise arriving 10 minutes before the advertised start time.

How to get here: With sustainability in mind, we are a short walk from the train station at Southwick, right on the Stagecoach 700 bus route, and have a lot of room for cycles. If you choose to drive, there are a limited number of parking spaces available at Shoreham Port, including disabled spaces. Further information about parking will be shared closer to the event.

Accessibility: When booking your ticket, please outline any accessibility requirements you may have – our team will reach out to you to see what reasonable adjustments can be made for you.

HR Cooperative Newsletter 'The Pulse - June 2023

Are you doing all you could be to support working parents?

Parents have it tough these days, and not just when they’re trying to wrestle screens away from their children!

More families than ever have both parents working – the cost of living means being a stay-at-home parent is unrealistic for most. Dealing with work commitments and home life can become a delicate balancing act. Not to mention the spiralling cost of childcare that many families have to fork out for.

Although the government has plans in place to give more parents access to free childcare, these won’t come into force until September 2025. That doesn’t help anyone right now.

Traditionally, some employers have shied away from hiring parents under the impression they’re unreliable, unfocussed, or uncommitted. But that couldn’t be further from the truth. Times are changing, and businesses are seeing that the positives of hiring parents far outweigh the negatives. If you have the right company culture that is.

So, what can you do to create a family-friendly business culture and attract and retain new talent in the shape of working parents?

First, you need to be aware of the leave, benefits and entitlements that apply to parents. These can be relevant to anyone from the moment they’re expecting, to the time their youngest child turns 18. They also apply to cases of adoption, surrogacy, LGBTQIA+ families, and in cases of pregnancy or neonatal loss.

You should also look at other ways you can support parents, by considering flexible working arrangements (which can apply to everyone, not only parents), and other perks you may be able to offer to help strike a good work/life balance.

The more you do to support working parents, the more you’ll see in return. It’s likely you’ll see more engaged, motivated, and productive employees who are happy in their roles and will stay with you for years to come.

Supporting parents can be simple if you understand the help that’s available to both your business and its employees. I’ve written a new guide that details everything you need to know about parents and the help available, as well as the laws you need to be aware of.

I’d love to offer you a free copy.

To download yours today, visit here. Or for more information or advice, give me a call.

Latest news

Drop in job vacancies puts productivity at risk

The number of job vacancies took a dramatic fall at the beginning of the year. And fewer opportunities for employees could lead to a drop in motivation – and productivity.

To combat this, employers need to place a focus on retaining their best people instead, with reward and recognition incentives.

While recognition can come in the form of a simple “well done”, according to new research, 86% of employees would feel valued at work if they received a surprise gift voucher worth £150. 57% said bonuses and regular rewards help them feel more valued.

When should a GP become involved in sick leave?

A recent tribunal found a business guilty of unfair dismissal and harassment when an employer contacted an employee’s GP regarding her mental health history, without consent.

To avoid a situation like this, it’s important you have an effective absence management policy in place. In cases of long-term sickness, conducting welfare meetings, showing care and concern for employees, and making reasonable adjustments to help them back to work is key.

Never be tempted to act before consulting an HR professional if you’re unsure of the best steps to take!

The number of employees signed off work has hit an all-time high post-Covid. The number of fit notes issued has risen by 11%. It’s possible this is due to an increase in mental health problems, Covid restrictions being lifted, and people moving back to offices.

It’s Pride Month! Are you getting involved?

If your business is doing things the right way, you’ll have a LOT of policies. Maternity policies, absence policies, we even have policies for internet use. And while you’ve hopefully got an inclusion and diversity policy, does it have a specific LGBTQIA+ inclusion section?

If not, it’s time you made a change.

While we’re fortunately seeing more acceptance of LGBTQIA+ communities, there are still occasions where LGBTQIA+ employees feel discriminated against, judged, or bullied simply for being themselves.

As an inclusive employer, it’s your job to make clear the repercussions of bullying, harassment, or discrimination of any kind, but that’s not the only thing you can do to make sure this behaviour doesn’t happen in your business.

Educate your employees with diversity training and awareness. Bring in LGBTQIA+ speakers or hold workshops that help everyone in the business understand the language to avoid in order to improve cohesion, but also to help them realise the difficulties that some LGBTQIA+ members face on a daily basis.

If you have LGBTQIA+ employees, don’t forget to speak to them to see what changes they think are needed in your business, if any. Take their feedback, their suggestions, and listen to their concerns. Likewise, let them know what to do if they feel they’re being harassed, bullied, or discriminated against at work, or by colleagues outside of work. Make sure they know who they should report any issues to, and the process for dealing with problems.

Inclusion and diversity is a big subject, but it’s important to ensure everyone is treated equally, fairly, and given the same opportunities. If you need any help or guidance on making the right changes in your business this Pride Month, give us a call.

Q&A

Can I decrease someone’s pay?

This would be a variation of the employee’s contract of employment. However, if you and your employee agree to a reduced wage, it’s ok. Providing it still meets National Minimum Wage requirements.

Can I legally hire someone on a zero-hour contract?

Zero-hour contracts are legal, providing you abide by employee’s statutory rights, including the right to National Minimum Wage, paid holiday, and rest breaks.

Can I make someone redundant while they’re on maternity leave?

Yes. However, you can’t make someone redundant because they’re on maternity leave, and there’s a strict process you must follow to avoid unfair dismissal or discrimination accusations.

See you next month!

We hope you found the newsletter informative, look out or the next one in July. If you’d like to download a copy for your managers click here.

Barclays Eagle Labs are now open for nominations for Barclays Entrepreneur Awards 2023!

The Barclays Entrepreneur Awards are back for their eighth year and now open for nominations - It’s time to get yours in!

The Awards celebrate those entrepreneurs who are disrupting the status quo, driving innovation and supporting communities and the economy more broadly. Now is your opportunity to showcase your business, and others, who’ve shown the passion and skills to turn vision into reality.

Search Barclays Entrepreneur Awards for more information.

Nominations are open from Thursday 1 June and close 30 June at midnight. Terms and conditions apply.

2023 Award categories;

Start-up Award, sponsored by FreshBooks– for new businesses that are challenging the status quo

Scale-up Award, sponsored by Propel – for established entrepreneurs who’ve experienced rapid growth

Social Award, sponsored by Visa – for entrepreneurs delivering transformative social or environmental change

Sustainability Award, sponsored by Smart Pension – for the positive impact of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) based entrepreneurs on the wider economy

International Expansion Award, sponsored by Barclays – for high-growth businesses growing beyond the UK at pace

Eagle Labs Innovation Award, sponsored by Eagle Labs – for entrepreneurs making an impact through digital innovation

Barclaycard Payments Award, sponsored by Barclays Payments – for entrepreneurs and businesses that have overcome a significant challenge or had big business growth

Games Award, sponsored by Barclays – for entrepreneurs and disruptive games companies who have shown real innovation and created games, products or services that have positively impacted the games industry or community.

Nominate now!

Careers event at Davison CE High School - Student Mock interviews

Would you be interested in taking part by volunteering your expertise and time to interview up to 10 students? 

Date - Wednesday 12^th July

Time - 9am - 1pm 

Location - Davison CE High School

9-11am - 15 min interviews 

11-11.20 - Break

11.20-1pm 15 min interviews

The scenario 

Students are submitting their CV's to 'The Recruitment Agency' who are looking for enthusiastic people to add to their books for a variety of job roles.

• Students will have been preparing their CV's in advance to bring with them to interview.

• Information for students prior to the interview can be downloaded here

• Interviewers questions - Prepared questions and a student feedback form can be downloaded here

There will be plenty of coffee/tea/water available all morning as well as pastries to keep you going!

If you would like to take part, please click on the link below to complete a short form.

Davison Mock Interview Morning

A27 Consultation Report

Thank you to everyone who shared their views on our proposals to improve the A27 between Worthing and Lancing during the public consultation. Our project team have reviewed all the feedback and compiled a consultation report which provides a summary of the responses received alongside details of how the consultation was undertaken.

You can download the report here

Analysis of the feedback received during the public consultation and other assessments will be used to select a preferred route later this year. 

HR Smart Summer Newsletter

Fancy a long weekend anyone?

Much has been written about the 4-day working week trial that was launched in 2022. Although working a 4-day week is not new, it was originally conceived as the condensed working week, whereby employees worked their weekly hours in four days not five and had a three day weekend. Now, following the workplace study, we are in the realms of employees being paid for five days, but only working for four days, 

But in a recent study by conducted in late 2022, it seems that around 60% of the participant companies reported that 4 day productivity remained around the same levels as that of 5 days. Happiness in the working environment returned and employees were more engaged then they had been working five days. This became known as the 100-80-100 model, where you pay employees 100% of their salary for 80% of their original contracted hours assuming that productivity remains at 100%.

Is this the future for all companies? The answer is probably no. Not all business sectors suit 4 day working weeks. Anyone who runs client centric contact centres may find that having too many people off when clients expect them to be available may cause operational issues. Manufacturing may also struggle too if 20% of machine time would be lost. Hourly paid employees would need a 25% hourly rate increase to make up for the shortfall in hours. Sectors where this form of working pattern could work well are likely to be knowledge based or service sectors.

So what do you need to think about if you are considering moving to a 100-80-100 model:

• Communication with staff - This is key if you are going to move to a radical change in working hours
• Consultation - Not everyone will want to work different hours, so check who is in and who is out
• Target Driven - You need a robust method of measuring what past productivity looked like to measure future fluctuations  
• Test the Validity - Don't be afraid to spend a few months trialling the new working patterns
• Written Agreements - Make sure you back up the changes with clearly written letters or agreements. Make sure they are signed by the employees
• Revocation - Make sure you can return to the status quo if things do not work out

Any changes to contractual working patterns would need to be agreed and ideally reached on a mutually agreeable basis.

If you would like to know more about this area, please let me know at heidi@hrsmartuk.com.

All the best for the Summer!

Heidi

Some Things You May Want to Know: 

How Do You Address Employee Mental Health Issues?
It is a common misconception that employers can resolve issues with employee mental health issues in the workplace. Whilst this may be true in certain cases, it certainly isn't true for the majority of cases in our general experience.

There are three main reasons why mental health issues occur:

• personal issues outside of work
• general social and societal changes outside of work
• life at work

We would urge all employers to concentrate on what life is like at work as this is what they can change and control. Employers should first consider promoting and supporting healthy lifestyles, exercise and a good work/life balance to ensure that employees remain fit for work and get time to pursue their own personal interests and family time.

We would then advise employers to review the current culture and working environment by looking at what the Company could do to make work life easier and let work flow through the employees. This could include removing system barriers, retraining managers or investing in more comfortable workstations.

Employers should encourage employees to switch off from work at the end of the working day. This allows the employee to concentrate on other things in their life without the constant pressure of a pinging phone or tablet.

You could also try asking employees what they think might make a difference to their wellbeing at work. This could be achieved via a suggestion box, through a questionnaire or team meetings. Make sure that if you ask for feedback you action or at least reply to each suggestion.

We are starting to see that less may actually result in more in various areas of work. A shorter dedicated time spent at work tends to focus the mind and may help with those employee wellbeing issues at work. 
 

This state of vacancy growth is still cause for concern, but we may be seeing a return to normality after the COVID crisis and BREXIT.

A link to the full report can be found below:
https://kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2023/03/kpmg-and-rec-uk-report-on-jobs.html

If you need any help on recruitment advice or need contacts in the recruitment sector please let us know by emailing jon@hrsmartuk.com.

Contractual Post-Termination & Sunset Clauses Clarified

In the Government's policy paper "Smarter regulation to Grow The Economy", the proposed changes around non-compete and EU Sunset clauses have been clarified to a certain degree. 

The Government is now proposing to limit the length of the Post-Termination clauses to a maximum of three-months. Employers should start to plan for this in terms of reviewing more senior level employee contracts. It is currently unclear whether this new proposal, if enacted, would nullify all current contractual agreements, but one way around this could be to extend any notice periods in certain employee contracts where the Company was most at risk.

In addition, the Sunset clause that threatened to cease all EU laws by the end of 2023 has now been scrapped. It is expected that only 800 out of the 4,800 laws that exist under the current EU legislation will be scrapped or amended. This means there is more certainty for employers and businesses in the short term. However, it still looks like there could be a lot of change in a short space of time, even with the reduced changes being made. 

If you need any advice on these topics please do not hesitate to contact Heidi at heidi@hrsmartuk.com or Jon at jon@hrsmartuk.com or call us on 01903 754107.

STATUTORY PAYMENTS INFORMATION

NATIONAL MINIMUM WAGE From 1st April 2023
Apprentice                             - £5.28 per hour
Age 16 to 17 inclusive          - £5.28 per hour
Age 18 to 20 inclusive          - £7.49 per hour
Age 21 to 22 inclusive          - £10.18 per hour
Age 23 and over                    - £10.42 per hour
London Living Wage             - £11.95 per hour
Living Wage                            - £10.80 per hour 

STATUTORY PAYMENTS From 6th April 2023
 

George Square Financial Management Monthly Market update – June 2023

Corporate Comeback

The last few weeks have seen equity markets gyrate in response to earnings and economic data.

The recent earnings season marked a full year since the start of the war in Ukraine. Most US large cap companies exceeded analyst expectations in Q1 2023. While the large cap US index reported a year-over-year decline in earnings of 2.2%, positive earnings surprises in sectors like Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care contributed to a decrease in the pace of earnings decline versus that in the fourth quarter of 2022 (-4.7%).

While earnings have surprised to the upside, economic data has started to weaken. China, the world’s largest exporter, has reported disappointing manufacturing data for two consecutive months. US housing and manufacturing indicators remain in recession territory and the wrangling around the debt ceiling and the flight of deposits out of the banking system create additional risks that investors need to be aware of.

When I get back to Blighty

The palpable sense of gloom around the prospects for the UK economy are hard to ignore. UK gilt yields have risen after the latest inflation reading by the office of national statistics. The consumer price index rose by 8.7% in April, down from 10.1% in March. This however is the highest inflation rate among the worlds advanced economies alongside Italy. By comparison, inflation in the US is just under 5% and is 7.2% in Germany.

Underlying inflation (excluding energy and food) rose sharply in April to 6.8% from 6.2% in March. Higher core inflation is seen as a sign that price growth is more likely to remain persistently high. It appears that the Bank of England has a lot more work to do. Expectation of further rate increases have quickly been priced into mortgage rates, forcing further pressure on beleaguered households.

The UK economy faces greater challenges in regaining its footing in a post-pandemic, post-Brexit world. As a result, both fiscal and monetary policy may need to be tighter for a little while longer. While this will suppress growth over the coming months, we do believe it will quell the risk of an inflation mindset taking hold. Inflation will eventually subside allowing a reversal of the policy measures in 2024.

Portfolio positioning

While there is no escaping the headlines, from an investment portfolio perspective, we have taken steps to mitigate against the risk of UK economic stagnation.

Our underweight exposure to equities remains appropriate, though we are looking for opportunities to add as and when markets begin to better reflect the more challenging economic environment. As things stand, other asset classes look relatively more attractive. We have been gradually increasing our exposure to government bond markets, which should start to offer more defensive characteristics as inflation falls from very high levels. We have recently been switching some of our fixed income exposure from US Treasuries into UK gilts, based on the view that markets may be overly-optimistic on US rate cuts. High levels of inflation in the UK have made meeting inflation plus return targets more challenging in the shorter term. Despite this, we remain confident in the ability to meet inflation-plus targets over the longer term.

Conclusion

The start of the year saw a recovery in optimism regarding global growth. While the UK appears to have misplaced its invitation to the recovery party, we believe it is a blip rather than a longer-term shift in our economic fortunes. The sell-off in bonds and parts of the equity market in 2022 has created a good starting point for better than average portfolio returns. We are data dependent and analyse, adjust, and then repeat. We see material risks to economically sensitive assets and have taken additional steps to improve portfolio outcomes.

Change is never painful. Only resistance to change is painful- Buddha.

Local Art Gallery reach finals in Muddy Stilettos Awards!

Two faced twins are delighted to announce they are finalists in the "Best Art Gallery in Sussex" category. 

"We're finalist!!!!! We are reaching out again to all of our lovely followers to ask if you can help us win by voting for us!"

Don't forget if you've voted already you still need to vote again.

Just follow this link https://sussex.muddystilettos.co.uk/vote/ and support this amazing gallery